Before more than 800 business leaders, he argued that Morocco has built solid foundations over the past twenty years, but must now convert this investment effort into productivity gains, companies capable of scaling, and new positions in global value chains. His intervention, titled “Morocco, what’s next?”, was not an inventory of successes. It was a call to change scale and nature.
I followed this speech closely, as it comes at a time when Morocco’s private sector is seeking to define a roadmap beyond immediate political horizons. Zouaoui, who joined McKinsey in Casablanca in 2005 before leading economic development work at a global level, returns at a moment when the conditions of competitiveness are rapidly recomposing. His point rests on a simple observation: Morocco has long leveraged cost competitiveness. Now, innovation, low-carbon energy, and the capacity to absorb technologies are becoming decisive.
A solid track record but decelerating growth
Over twenty years, excluding the Covid period, average growth stood at around 4%. Exports multiplied by five. The share of agricultural employment was halved. The highway network was multiplied by three, and port tonnage by four. Rural electrification rose from 18% twenty-five years ago to nearly 100%. Nominal GDP per capita almost tripled, multidimensional poverty was halved in a decade, and life expectancy increased by five years. These advances have translated into the daily lives of Moroccans.
Yet the full potential has not been reached. Growth is decelerating, falling from around 5% in the 2000s to 3.5% over the past fifteen years. Investment represents about 28% of GDP, a level close to that of major emerging economies (30 to 35%). But a significant share continues to go toward construction and public works rather than innovation, machine tools, and productive investments. The public contribution remains predominant. On the corporate side, structures struggle to cross size thresholds. From a sample of 20,000 companies created in 2019 and registered with the CNSS, only 43 reportedly reached more than 50 employees five years later. The employment rate stands at around 38%, compared with 60 to 65% in countries such as Indonesia, Malaysia, or Turkey. Finally, Morocco is beginning to feel the effects of demographic aging. The available dividends must therefore be used now.
Productivity, the engine of economies that truly emerge
Zouaoui drew on the work of the McKinsey Global Institute covering more than 70 emerging countries. Eighteen of them, labeled “outperformers,” maintained real growth above 5% over long periods. Their secret comes down to one word: productivity. In these countries, roughly 80% of growth came from productivity gains, versus a much lower contribution in economies growing at 2 to 3%. It is not only the volume of investment that matters, but its destination and its capacity to generate more value.
Two factors stand out. Large companies contribute about 80% of productivity. Economies that have truly emerged have twice as many of them relative to GDP as the others. SMEs, for their part, form the pool of tomorrow’s large companies. The example of a firm that grew from a few million dirhams to several billion euros in valuation was cited to illustrate this potential. In the most dynamic economies, the composition of large companies changes: half of them are replaced over a decade by more competitive and innovative players.
The world in which this dynamic unfolds has changed. Geopolitics increasingly structures trade flows. Technology is disrupting skills and production methods. Energy and resources are seeing stronger demand growth, with a greater requirement for predictability. China continues to add three times more productive capacity each year than Europe and the United States combined. At the same time, opportunities are emerging in eighteen “arenas” capable of reshaping the global economy: artificial intelligence and its ecosystem, semiconductors, cloud, software, digitalization, cybersecurity, electrification, electric vehicles, batteries, robotics, autonomous vehicles, space, and biotechnology. These domains have already contributed $18 trillion in market capitalization growth in three years and could represent up to 16% of the world economy by 2040, compared with 4% today.
Three levers for an accelerated trajectory
Zouaoui identified three dimensions for acceleration. The first concerns large companies. They are the productivity engine when they reach scale, invest in R&D, and transform technologically. “Every company should define itself as a technology company,” he stated, because technology is becoming central. Competitiveness against local and international competition remains a key growth factor.
The second dimension focuses on SMEs. The goal is to help them grow so they become tomorrow’s majors, through financing, integration into ecosystems (multinationals, public, private), and their capacity for innovation and disruption. New generations of entrepreneurs bring ideas that renew the productive fabric.
The third dimension consists of building a new competitiveness, beyond the cost and subcontracting model of twenty-five years ago. It is energy-based, logistical, industrial, and innovative. Morocco has assets: two maritime façades and port infrastructure, with Tangier transshipments rising nearly 20% in 2024; 46% of installed capacity in renewables; around 25,000 industrial companies capable of deepening value chains; a still-mobilizable demographic potential (nearly 4 million young people ready to enter the labor market); and financial credibility illustrated by a 65% increase in foreign direct investment in recent years.
Among the bets to strengthen are green hydrogen, renewable water, and open technology infrastructure, notably data centers. These investments, on the order of $10 to $15 billion for certain projects, require a change of scale in financing, international co-financing, and close coordination between public, private, territorial, and offtaker actors. Building data centers at scale modernizes Moroccan companies as a whole. More competitive energy thanks to renewables directly strengthens their productivity.
Key figures from the diagnosis
- Average growth ~4% over 20 years (excluding Covid)
- Investment ~28% of GDP
- Employment rate ~38%
- 43 companies out of 20,000 created in 2019 reach >50 employees after 5 years
- 46% of installed capacity in renewables
- ~25,000 industrial companies
- 18 technology arenas that could represent 16% of the world economy by 2040
Perspectives beyond 2030
Morocco has a solid foundation and relevant assets in the current global context. It also has entrepreneurial forces and a youth capable of carrying the momentum. But 2030 is coming fast. The useful trajectory is that of 2040. The challenge is not to invest ever more, but to turn every investment into a lever of productivity, innovation, and renewed competitiveness. Coordination between public, private, and international actors will be decisive in mobilizing capital at the scale of structuring projects.
Debates within the CGEM have shown convergence on the need to move from cost competitiveness to value creation. What remains is to translate this diagnosis into concrete actions on SME financing, industrial upgrading, and the integration of new technologies. Global conditions are evolving rapidly; the time for adaptation is equally so.
FAQ
Why is productivity presented as the decisive factor?
Because, in emerging economies that have maintained high growth over decades, roughly 80% of that growth came from productivity gains, not solely from the volume of investment or labor.
What role do large companies and SMEs play in this vision?
Large companies contribute the majority of productivity gains thanks to their scale and investment capacity. SMEs form the pool of future large companies, provided they can grow through financing and integration into ecosystems.
What new opportunities can Morocco seize?
Positions in areas such as green hydrogen, data centers, renewable energies, and certain industrial technologies, leveraging its geography, infrastructure, and low-carbon energy potential.
Why target 2040 rather than 2030?
Because 2030 is near and structural transformations (productivity, company size, new value chains) require a longer horizon to produce lasting effects.
