In Morocco, however, it remains one of the most delicate questions in the property market. According to a recent analysis by TelQuel, the price per square metre can sometimes vary from simple to double depending on whether one consults notarial data, listing portals or the tax authority. This lack of a common reference weighs on every transaction: the seller overestimates, the buyer hesitates, the bank lends cautiously.
Key takeaways
- A property’s price remains hard to establish in Morocco: asking, declared and actual prices can differ.
- According to Bank Al-Maghrib and the ANCFCC, the price index fell by 0.4% in Q1 2026, then rose by 0.7% in Q2.
- PropTech companies such as Agenz use data and AI to offer online valuations.
- These tools provide an indicative range and depend on the quality of the data.
- A reliable base of transaction data remains the key challenge for the years ahead.
It is in this space of uncertainty that a new generation of players, the PropTechs, is trying to establish itself. Their promise: to replace intuition and word of mouth with statistical models fed by large volumes of data. We set out to examine what amounts to a real transformation and what still belongs to stated ambition.
A market where price remains hard to establish
To understand what is at stake, one must distinguish three notions of price. The price shown in an advertisement reflects the seller’s expectations. The price declared in the deed of sale serves as the basis for calculating duties and taxes. The price actually paid, finally, is not always identical to the latter, and the gap has long fuelled the debate over under-declaration.
The authorities have tried to address this. The Directorate General of Taxes (DGI) publishes a price reference, drawn up with the ANCFCC, the National Federation of Real Estate Developers (FNPI), Bank Al-Maghrib and the Order of Notaries. It divides large cities into zones, sometimes down to the street, and relies on registered sales deeds. But the DGI itself states that these prices do not constitute a market valuation and are enforceable only by the tax authority. The tool has also gone through periods of suspension, notably in 2020 during the health crisis, to prevent it from blocking sales. TelQuel today describes it as a tax instrument rather than a genuine market benchmark.
Professionals, for their part, have long worked with their knowledge of the field, which is valuable but difficult to objectify and to compare from one city to another.
What public data shows
The main official indicator is the real estate asset price index (IPAI), published quarterly by BAM and the ANCFCC on the basis of land registry data. It is calculated using the so-called repeat-sales method: it tracks the change in the price of the same property when it is resold, which partly corrects for the fact that no two homes are ever identical.
The latest figures illustrate both the value and the complexity of reading the data:
- In 2025, the IPAI rose by 0.6%, according to BAM and the ANCFCC.
- In the first quarter of 2026, it fell by 0.4% year on year, with transactions down 9.3% over the same period and 40.2% compared with the fourth quarter of 2025.
- In the second quarter of 2026, it rebounded by 0.7% year on year. Residential prices gained 1%, driven by apartments (+1.1%), while houses (-0.7%) and villas (-0.3%) declined.
- Differences between cities remain marked. In the first quarter, prices fell by 4.7% in Rabat, 2.7% in Casablanca, 1.5% in Marrakech and 3.9% in Tangier.
These series show that a national average masks very different realities depending on the type of property and the city. They also show that prices and volumes must be read together. For the economist Driss Effina, interviewed by TelQuel, the market appears to be losing fluidity rather than collapsing. For his part, the president of the FNPI, Taoufik Kamil, anticipated at the start of the year “neither a surge nor a sharp correction”, with price changes of between 2% and 5% nationally.
It is precisely on this granularity (neighbourhood, street, floor, condition of the property) that data-driven tools aim to deliver value.
The arrival of valuation platforms
Among the most visible players is Agenz, founded in 2021 by Malik and Badr Belkeziz. The company offers a free online valuation, market data and matchmaking services. In 2023, it raised 13 million dirhams, announcing a 5% margin of error on its valuations, a figure provided by its chief executive and which should be read as such. In June 2026, several media outlets reported a new $5 million funding round, with Breega and Attijariwafa Ventures among the investors, intended to strengthen its data and automated valuation services.
What these platforms call an automated valuation model rests on a simple principle. The algorithm compares the property to be valued with thousands of references (listings, transactions, neighbourhood characteristics) and derives a price range from them. The larger and cleaner the database, the more reliable the estimate is supposed to be.
Other players, including valuation firms, offer similar simulators. They generally point out that these tools provide an indicative range, which does not replace an on-site assessment by a professional.
The limits of the algorithm
It would be misleading to present data as a miracle solution. Several obstacles remain.
First, the quality of sources. A significant share of the data used comes from listings, that is, from asking prices rather than concluded prices. TelQuel itself points to precisely this gap between advertised and transacted prices. A model fed with listings risks reflecting sellers’ optimism more than market reality.
Second, the heterogeneity of the housing stock. Between a recent apartment in a new development, a riad in a medina and an old family villa, the criteria of value differ profoundly and comparable data are scarce. Models are more at ease where transactions are numerous and standardised, that is, mainly in large urban centres and mainstream segments.
Finally, the transparency of methods. An automated valuation is useful if one knows how it is built, what data feeds it and within what limits it is reliable. On this point, the accuracy claims announced by companies are not, to our knowledge, subject to publicly available independent verification.
What is at stake for banks, notaries and individuals
The issue goes beyond the comfort of a seller trying to set a price. Valuation conditions access to credit: banks must assess the value of the property they take as collateral, in a context where mortgage rates were, according to the FNPI, around 5% to 5.2% at the start of the year and where lenders are being more selective.
It also concerns taxation, since the declared price determines registration duties and the real estate capital gains tax, as well as urban planning and housing policy, which benefit from relying on reliable market data. It is notable that a leading banking institution figures among the investors of a PropTech: one can see in this, by way of analysis, a sign of interest in valuation tools that could eventually feed into lending processes, although no announcement to that effect is, at this stage, documented.
Governance questions also arise. Who owns transaction data? Under what conditions can it be shared between administrations, notaries and private players? And how can the protection of personal information be guaranteed? These issues concern both the regulatory framework and users’ trust.
Towards what balance
Data will not eliminate property uncertainty, but it can reduce the avoidable part of it. Its contribution will be all the more solid if it rests on reliable transaction data, today held mainly by public institutions and notaries, and not solely on listings.
Two trajectories are conceivable. In the first, private players build their own references, with the risk of a proliferation of competing prices without an arbiter. In the second, a more structured dialogue emerges between the administration, professionals and PropTechs to provide a common foundation, whether public or shared. The Moroccan market has not yet decided.
One thing is certain: online valuation has become a reflex for many individuals. What remains to be seen is whether it will establish itself as a decision-support tool, or as a mere starting point before the still necessary opinion of a professional.
FAQ
Does an online valuation replace an expert appraisal?
No. It provides an indicative range based on statistical data. An appraisal includes a visit to the property and an analysis of its specific features.
Where does the data used by PropTechs come from?
Sources vary by platform: listings, market data, transaction information and sales history. Their nature determines the reliability of the valuation.
Does the DGI reference give the real value of a property?
No. The DGI states that these prices do not constitute a market valuation and are enforceable only by the tax authority.
What does the real estate asset price index measure?
Published by Bank Al-Maghrib and the ANCFCC, it tracks changes in the prices of residential properties, land and commercial properties using the repeat-sales method.
