The phenomenon is far from a dramatic exodus, but its steady, year-on-year nature raises questions about the appeal of this North African coastal city, whose Spanish sovereignty is claimed by Morocco.
A negative migration balance for four straight years
According to INE figures, 2,497 Spaniards left Ceuta for other Spanish provinces in 2021, followed by 2,408 in 2022, 2,299 in 2023, and 2,019 in 2024. Across these four years combined, that amounts to 9,223 departures — a figure worth weighing against Ceuta’s total population of 83,517 in 2021, meaning the departures represent roughly 11% of the starting population.
Looking at each year individually, the annual share of departures relative to the total population declines steadily: about 3% in 2021, 2.9% in 2022, 2.77% in 2023, and around 2.43% in 2024. The outflow is slowing, then, without reversing.
That figure alone doesn’t tell the full story. Over the same period, Ceuta also welcomed arrivals from the rest of Spain: 1,554 people in 2021, 1,865 in 2022, 1,875 in 2023, and 1,712 in 2024. The INE classifies these as internal inter-provincial migrations by nationality. A significant share of these newcomers hold administrative, military, or security-related positions — meaning their move to Ceuta is often tied to a job posting rather than a residential choice driven by the city’s appeal.
A shrinking deficit that hasn’t disappeared
Weighing departures against arrivals, the net balance comes to -2,217 Spanish citizens over four years, or about 2.65% of the 2021 population. The year-by-year breakdown shows a clear improving trend: the deficit fell from 943 people in 2021 to just 307 in 2024 — a nearly 70% reduction in four years.
Key figures (2021-2024):
- Cumulative departures to the rest of Spain: 9,223
- Cumulative arrivals from the rest of Spain: 7,006
- Net migration balance: -2,217 (about -2.65% of the 2021 population)
- Annual deficit trend: from -943 (2021) to -307 (2024)
This gradual improvement suggests the city is increasingly able to offset its departures, though without reversing the overall trend. Across the entire period observed, Ceuta remains in net loss of Spanish residents.
Why this figure matters
A city of fewer than 85,000 people losing a portion of its Spanish population on a sustained basis raises a structural question: its ability to retain working-age residents, families, and skilled labor over the long term. The reasons often cited — cost of living, distance from the peninsula’s major economic hubs, recurring migration tensions at the border, uncertainty over the city’s status — would each warrant a dedicated investigation. None of these hypotheses is validated by the INE data itself, which only measures flows, not their causes.
The geopolitical context is not neutral, however. Ceuta regularly sits at the center of migration and diplomatic tensions between Spain and Morocco, marked by episodes of mass border crossings and consular crises. Morocco claims sovereignty over the city, a position not recognized by Spain or by most of the international community. These episodes, widely covered in the press, feed a recurring debate in Spain over the city’s future — a debate these demographic figures feed into without settling.
Toward stabilization, or a renewed acceleration?
The steady decline in the migration deficit between 2021 and 2024 could point to the beginning of a stabilization. But the most recent developments at the border — and their media coverage — could just as easily reverse this downward trend, pushing more residents to leave the city for the mainland. Conversely, if Spanish authorities strengthen Ceuta’s economic or security appeal, the balance could continue to narrow, or even even out.
Only the INE’s next publications, expected in 2027 covering the 2025 fiscal year, will settle which scenario plays out.
FAQ
How many Spaniards left Ceuta between 2021 and 2024?
9,223 Spanish citizens left Ceuta for other Spanish provinces over that period, according to the INE.
Is Ceuta’s migration balance still negative?
Yes, every year from 2021 to 2024 shows a negative balance, though it has been shrinking, falling from -943 to -307.
Who are the Spaniards moving to Ceuta?
A significant share hold administrative, military, or security positions, with their arrival tied to a job posting rather than a residential choice.
Will this trend reverse?
There’s no way to say for certain. The shrinking deficit suggests stabilization, but recent border tensions could tip the balance either way.
